Friday, September 19th, 2003

LA Times spin is that, despite appearances by Jackson and Clinton this week, “Blacks Not Yet on Davis’ Bandwagon”. BTW props to Regina Freer, Cal grad and a legendary student activist from the 80s, who is quoted in the piece.

posted by @ 7:13 am | 0 Comments

Friday, September 19th, 2003

Since May 1, the death toll in Iraq has been 77. The death toll in Oakland for the same period has been 56. Behind the boardwalk roller-coaster atmosphere of the recall, this moving essay by Joan Ryan on violence in Oakland and violence in Iraq is a reminder of just what the real stakes are for this election in California. But is anyone really talking about this?

posted by @ 7:06 am | 0 Comments

Thursday, September 18th, 2003

Here’s an eye-opening look at the economics of Arnie’s campaign from the New York Times. Still think homie’s an independent candidate?

posted by @ 8:14 pm | 0 Comments

Thursday, September 18th, 2003

GOT DAM IT’S A BRAND NEW PAYBACK!

So a brother leaves the scene for a week to soak up art and activism and beauty and hip-hop theater and what happens? The whole world goes nuts. Democrats delay the recall, while they fight not to delay the recall. Wesley Clark declares. Bush even tells the truth. All I can say is I’d hate to see what happens if I try to leave again. I’m staying put ’til this book is done.

At the risk of sounding like an idiot, I hope the delay is affirmed. If it does, it will be bad news for Arnie, who might actually have to do a real interview during the 5 month break. Democrats will have to continue to solidify their core, progressive constituency with more good legislation. And it could spell certain doom for Prop 54–because the contested Dem primary will energize the partisans.

On the other hand, Bustamante and the driver’s bill are serving as lightning rods for the goose-steppers. See this piece.

Props to the Hip-Hop Theater Festival for three nights of incredible, blazing performances at the Yerba Buena Center. If you missed it, don’t miss the extended Fest next year. Next level isht fa sho. Mad love to all who participated in the Future Aesthetics convening this past week. It’s just begun…

posted by @ 10:45 am | 0 Comments

Thursday, September 11th, 2003

Prop 54’s support is sliding. Article in SF Chronicle here. The Sac Bee article is here. The Field poll is here.

Arianna’s Hollywood connections get a closer look in a New York Times article here.

Meanwhile Reeps are getting ready for a bloodbath this weekend. Here’s another reason why you haven’t heard much about Arnie’s campaign–there will be lots of horse-trading going on this weekend as Arnie and McClintock play tug-of-war with McClintock’s supporters.

Article in Sf Chronicle here.

LA Times article is here.

Oh yeah, Ueberroth dropped out this week. No one even yawned when he left the room.

posted by @ 9:06 am | 0 Comments

Tuesday, September 9th, 2003

First post-debate numbers show that Bustamante’s lead over Arnie grew, while Davis closes the gap slightly. McClintock was the biggest mover, up to legitimately double digits, and taking away 27% of the Reep vote. Ueberroth, Huffington went nowhere. Camejo lost ground.

Get the results at Field Poll Online.

posted by @ 7:29 am | 0 Comments

Sunday, September 7th, 2003

BUSTAMANTE DIVERTS DOUGH TO FIGHTING PROP 54

Proving once again that in politics the right things usually happen for the wrong reasons, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante is diverting the money from Indian tribe endorsements to fighting Prop 54. The Sacramento Bee broke the story this morning here. Schwarzenegger decided to oppose Prop 54 as well, almost certainly as a balance to his recently announced stance against driver’s licenses for undocumented immigrants.

Connery is all but throwing in the towel. In a LA Times piece this morning he conceded Prop 54 is probably doomed.

Last week, Schwarzenegger announced he would oppose a bill currently heading to Governor Davis’ desk sponsored by Los Angeles State Senator Gilbert Cedillo that would allow undocumented immigrants to be able to acquire drivers licenses. Given the heat he’s received for his support of Prop 187, he’s apparently counted out the Latino vote. His opposition to Prop 54 is probably calculated to stem any further bleeding from the African American and Asian American constituencies, although it is notable that he has not agreed to appear at a statewide debate for California’s ethnic media outlets in Los Angeles next week, and likely won’t show up.

The best thing about this recall race is that the ideological spectrum is being well represented. Moderates look like blow-in-the-wind poll-watchers. Ideologues look like down-from-the-mountain truth-tellers. Party leaders are recognizing, perhaps more so than at any other point in California history, that it will be a race to turnout new–rather than so-called swing–voters.

That’s the basis of the calculus at work in both the Bustamante and Schwarzenegger campaigns. In this instance, Democrats probably have the advantage. Their chair, Art Torres, is a progressive Latino who is comfortable with the expansionist vision that the national party leaders have viewed as poisonous over the past decade. At the same time, Cali Dems have been able to work what they have seen as the emerging majority to their advantage.

Republicans, on the other hand, have been plagued with factional fighting. Schwarzenegger’s campaign still reflects a tension between the cavemen politics of Orange County and the far north of the state, and the socially liberal, suburban moderate bloc of the rest of the state. They may be far more divided at this point. Their candidate is the perfect made-in-Hollywood cipher. It must be mad drama in the daily briefing meetings in the Arnie camp.

We’ll see how the polls look at the end of next week.

posted by @ 12:01 pm | 0 Comments

Friday, September 5th, 2003

CONNERLY’S PROP 54 GROUP UNDER ATTACK FOR NON-DISCLOSURE

The state Fair Political Practices Commission took the unprecedented step yesterday of suing Ward Connerly and his American Civil Rights Coalition for failing to disclose $2 million in campaign contributions. The money from the Coalition is providing almost 90% of the funding for the Proposition 54 campaign. I guess it’s all in keeping with their “Keep Em Ignant” steez. Hearing is set for three weeks from now…

See the Oakland Tribune Online.

posted by @ 9:15 am | 0 Comments

Thursday, September 4th, 2003

You can read Mike Davis’ take on the recall at TomDispatch. Thanks to Tommy Tompkins for this, and as always an intellectual BIG UP to the original L.A. Mike D.

posted by @ 11:56 am | 0 Comments

Thursday, September 4th, 2003

HOW STUPID WAS IT, ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10?

Actually the first debate was really entertaining. For the first time in years, we got a real debate with real differences between real candidates, not a brain-curdling, eyelid-weighting, mush-mouthed rush of two similar idiots hastening to agree with the other before splitting fine hairs of irrelevance.

The presence of five spectrum-spanning candidates and Arnie’s absence actually meant that the candidates had to focus on real issues. So ideology won the day, and everyone got theirs.

Handicapping the event?

Cruz Bustamante, the front-runner among these folks, looked so damn confused by actually having to speak plainly (still recovering from the N-word episode, hmm?) he came off as completely idiotic. At least twice he answered the wrong question, and in his closing, he forgot his main point. Arianna exploited Cruz just short of intellectual bullying. If there was any doubt Bustamante is an intellectual lightweight, last night got rid of that for all time. On a stupid scale of 1 to 10, he scored a 9. Watch him give up points in the next poll.

Peter Ueberroth answered one question the whole night. The answer is “jobs”. This is the guy everyone entrusted to Rebuild LA? No wonder he doesn’t bring that multi-million farce up anymore. Stupid scale: 8. He’s done.

Tom McClintock, the far-right Reep, came off as a smart conservative by default. He made no attempt to disguise his right-wing ideology (actually he never has), so all the Dems who he says voted for him in the last election can be clear. He proudly declared himself pro-guns, anti-women and anti-immigrant–a pretty shitty combo, huh? However, I could hear the cheers at the John Birch Society get-together. He hurt Arnie a lot last night. Stupid scale: 2. He really jumps into double digits in the next polls. Watch Arnie move right, declare himself pro-54 in the next debate.

Peter Camejo, the angry Green, started slow, then blossomed into the most focused and the sharpest I’ve ever seen him. Smart, on-point, on-message, passionate. His points regarding Cali’s fucked up tax system especially put even McClintock on the defensive. They played well in Walnut Creek, will they work anywhere else? Who cares. For anyone vaguely left of Richard Riordan, Camejo looked like the moral center of the debate last night. Stupid scale: 1.

Arianna Huffington, the self-declared independent, drew blood early and often with her witticisms. On McClintock’s support of regressive taxes: ‘How stupid is that on a scale of 1 to 10’? On Cruz and the Indian tribes: ‘That’s legalized bribery’. On Cruz: ‘Don’t be the Ralph Nader of 2003 and take away votes from an independent candidate for governor. Me!’ She single-handedly made the debate last night, and proved why her entry into the race was so important. Sitting next to Bustamante, she mercilessly picked on him all night, keeping the proceedings both humorous and intellectually sharp. She only faltered when asked how she would overturn Prop 13. But details are for wonks, the public wants positions. (Which by the way is also why Gray Davis didn’t help his case in the first half hour, but more on that later.) In these formats, she shines because she’s clearly the valedictorian–plus the clown–of the class. Especially in the Bay, she took votes from Bustamante last night. Stupid scale: 0. She won the debate.

The most interesting thing about last night’s proceedings is how they may have subtly shaped the public’s perceptions of the recall. Davis was granted a half hour at the beginning of the night to state his case against the recall. Pundits this morning noted that he was finally taking responsibility and speaking in specifics, but from where I sit, he only hurt his case. When he turned Clinton-wonkish on the car tax, he really lost folks. This has always been Davis’ problem–he speaks from the head, not the heart. Folks were just reminded of his inability to connect with “average” voters–indeed, he even looked patronizing in taking on their tough questions last night. Even worse, he was accorded only 1/4 of the time last night, Bustamante refused to stay on the “No Recall” message, and the Huffington-inspired fizziness of the candidate panel seemed like a very welcome alternative to the still-alienating New Old Gray.

So onward to Sept. 24. Bring Arnie on!

Coverage of the first debate:

SF Chronicle

LA Times

posted by @ 9:39 am | 0 Comments



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