Wednesday, April 13th, 2005

Random Thoughts On The Thing

While avoiding deadlines…

A lot of folks–many of whom have been personally burnt by The Source in a myriad of ways, or as Danyel has said, hold old scars from old wars–maintain a deathwish for the magazine. The reality is that, despite its near- or at-bankruptcy status, its internal chaos (in which getting a book to the printer has got to be a masterful feat in and of itself), and its arduous tumultuous destaffing/restaffing cycles, the magazine cannot go away.

Not WILL not. CAN not.

Why? Because its circulation base is probably among the most valuable in publishing.

There’s a few things about it that make it so valuable.

1) There are as many as half a million folks picking it up in any given month (maybe less in more recent years, but still). And the pass-through rate–the rate at which folks give the magazine to someone else to read–is through the roof.

2) The magazine–like other hip-hop joints–tend to do stupid newsstand sales, much more than Rolling Stone or GQ. That kind of audience loyalty can’t be faked through accounting or miscounting (as we’ve seen the past year with the newspaper rigging scandals).

3) That audience is “urban” and young–the most fickle of audiences. Anyone that can capture this group is holy grail for publishers. Advertisers will kill to be seen as hip.

4) And, that audience just happens to be at the core of billions in global entertainment commodities. What someone wears in The Source or any other hip-hop magazine reverberates from the street to the malls to the backwoods of many foreign countries.

So the likelihood of anyone in publishing just letting that circ base fall apart and disappear is very very very low. It is very valuable to someone out there, even if the brand name appears to be diminishing daily. The circ base is probably the only thing that’s kept them in the game this long.

When the other shoe drops, which may be sooner than we think, expect what I just laid out to you to be a big part of the story.

posted by @ 10:33 am | 6 Comments



6 Responses to “Random Thoughts On The Thing”

  1. Anonymous says:
    April 13, 2005 at 9:36 pm

    the Source’s circ numbers have fallen dramatically over the last eighteen months. And, more to the point, the exact number of their loss of readers is unavailable due to the fact that the Source did not submit themselves to an ABC audit for the last half year. So their numbers are, as of right now, unknown. EVERY magazine with a national distribution submits to ABC. That the Source did not, for perhaps the first time in their (national) history, speaks volumes. This is fact. I’ve seen the letter Mays sent out to advertisers trying to explain why they have no “real” circ numbers right now.

    FYI:

    “An ABC audit and the resulting certificate of circulation provide important tools to help you use your circulation to build and enhance the strength and profile of your magazine. Below are a few reasons for its importance:

    Reassurance for advertisers in the form of an independent verification to industry agreed standards, gives credibility to your circulation claims and your title.

    Transparent and comparable data ensures all ABC audited titles are operating on level playing field.

    Many advertising agencies make an ABC certificate a prerequisite for inclusion on their schedules.

    The ABC certificate of circulation enables you to prove the quality as well as the quantity of your circulation.

    The ABC profile certificate of circulation provides you with the opportunity to further differentiate the quality of your circulation through the use of detailed demographic data.”

    and so on.

  2. Jeff says:
    April 13, 2005 at 9:48 pm

    Thanks for this, both for laying out the importance of the ABC audit to the readers here, and the info re: Mays’ advertisers’ letter. Your point is well taken. I’m not sure all of the advertisers in The Source are concerned about ABC–your regional indie labels and emerging clothing lines, say–but we can reasonably be sure that the bigger ones are.

    What did you think of the main argument though? I figure that even if the circ numbers have fallen off, say, 25 to 33%, we’re still talking about a very solid circ base. I suspect the sell-throughs have remained above industry norms as well–just cause of the brand name and their distribution concentrations. In other words, this base is still a goldmine for anyone half-smart enough to take it and fairly willing to work it.

    Having said that, Mays has consistently overpriced the magazine, ever since he first started trying to sell it around 92-93, not long after the mag went national.

    Perhaps Black Enterprise or whoever else might be hanging around to scoop it is waiting for the (inevitable?) fire sale?

  3. Anonymous says:
    April 13, 2005 at 10:09 pm

    I’m not sure all of the advertisers in The Source are concerned about ABC–your regional indie labels and emerging clothing lines, say–but we can reasonably be sure that the bigger ones are.

    probably true, on both counts.

    I suspect the sell-throughs have remained above industry norms as well

    I have good, damn near evidential reasons to believe this is not true, except for maybe a random issue, here and there.

    In other words, this base is still a goldmine for anyone half-smart enough to take it and fairly willing to work it

    this is absolutely true, but there are other places — obviously Vibe, and XXL, but also the smaller, more regional magazines, like the new Down, as well as Feds and Murder Dog and the rest. The Source is down, but not out. But they are not operating right now as a professional media outlet. In this crazy world, though, (everybody loves a trainwreck; everyone loves a fall-and-then-rise from disgrace), that might just end up helping them.

    Mays has consistently overpriced the magazine, ever since he first started trying to sell it around 92-93, not long after the mag went national

    this I don’t have the chops to comment on.

    Perhaps Black Enterprise or whoever else might be hanging around to scoop it is waiting for the (inevitable?) fire sale?

    Mays will never sell. He’d ask for nickels on the street before he sold. Regardless of what the Source is right now, they did start this whole hip hop journalism thing. Mays, sell? I’ll eat my fitted.

  4. Jeff says:
    April 13, 2005 at 10:20 pm

    But on the last point, didn’t Mays already give up some ownership in the 2002 deal with BE? By the way, the $17 million investment was supposed to go towards launching new niche magazines targeted at–cough cough–women and children. Hey, I just report em.

  5. Anonymous says:
    April 13, 2005 at 10:34 pm

    didn’t Mays already give up some ownership in the 2002 deal with BE?

    ownership is not, at least in this case, control. to truly sell would mean to give up control. When Essence sold half to Time Inc., they gave up very little control. Now that Time Inc. owns all of Essence note the firings/resignations/switcheroos and the (current and coming) changes in regard to who’s really running things. That The Source would exist the world, and Dave (and his partner) would have nothing to do with it, is not a world those two believe in. That magazine IS ALL THEY HAVE. If it was only about money for them, they’d run their business better, or hire a thorough someone to run it. It’s about the power and control and influence they have — that’s what floats their boats, gives them a reason for getting up in the morning. If they sold, and got zillions (or even just millions), all Mays and BenZ would do, is start another magazine.

    the $17 million investment was supposed to go towards launching new niche magazines targeted at–cough cough–women and children.

    yeah, um, right.

    Hey, I just report em.

    which is why I come here.

  6. Jeff says:
    April 13, 2005 at 10:46 pm

    Ok, let’s float a theory and see what folks think. And hey, while we’re at it, let’s all float all the theories we’d like.

    Here’s theory 1: There is a hostile backdoor play at work to takeover The Source. When the harassment suit is filed, Benzino is hurriedly brought back as a way to draw cover fire, and to reassure investors in the play that the new management will be much better and that the magazine will be devalued.

    Thoughts, people?

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