Saturday, September 18th, 2004

Some Polls Ain’t Shit

Back on topic, right?

You’re gonna see a lot of polls between now and November 2. Right now the general polls don’t mean shit. Here’s probably the best summary of the existing polls out there. They show the range of poll results out there: from Bush at 13 points up to Kerry at 1 point up.

The Gallup Poll, in particular, which shows Bush up 13 has been the cause of much hand-wringing. But before you start packing for Canada, here’s a smart refutation of its method.

In any case, the polls that really matter are the state polls and the electoral counts. Who needs the popular vote these days?

And here’s where you can go for that data:

+Pro-Kerry state polling and projected electoral vote counts.

+Pro-Bush state polling and projected electoral vote counts.

Interesting point: the pro-Bush pollers give Kerry a much closer race at this point.

Another interesting point: there is quite a debate raging now over how accurate these polls are because of the cell-phone effect. See here for more detailed discussion.

Main point: Clearly Kerry has squandered his lead. Back in mid-August, both sides concluded Kerry had as much as a 100-vote electoral victory in hand. That’s reversed now.

My take: He’s gotta stop talking like Gore ’00 and start talking like Gore ’04: get some backbone and some fire. Bottom line: if this race is going to be won in the trenches, the street soldiers have to be fired up.

Why do these fools only seem able to speak their mind if they have no intention of seeking office? Hope we don’t have to ask this on November 3.

posted by Jeff Chang @ 9:52 am | 0 Comments

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